By Cecil Bothwell

Cities aren�t what they used to be.

Depending on where you set your baseline, that�s mostly good news, coupled with some very difficult financial problems that will need solution.

Some of the issues are emergent, that is, they are caused by demographic and economic changes over which government has very little control. Others are the direct result of public policy.

For example, Asheville has been monkey-wrenched twice by the North Carolina General Assembly: the Sullivan Acts prevent the city�s charging a higher water rate to non-residents, removing what is, elsewhere, a huge incentive for voluntary annexation.

Last year our legislators unhelpfully rendered involuntary annexation impossible. While involuntary inclusion is often seen as unfair, the truth is some shade of gray. Residential communities around the City expand due to proximity to city jobs and amenities. Asheville experiences the largest day/night population shift in the state, thanks to commuters, shoppers and students.

That means Asheville taxpayers are footing the bill for roads, sidewalks, parks and emergency services for 40,000 people who don�t contribute their share. Some argue that out-of-town shoppers pay their way in sales tax, which avoids the obvious truth that city dwellers also shop in the city.

But the behaviors and trends that escape government guidance are more potent, and largely positive. Consider the attraction of downtown living. Post-war America built autos in factories that had ramped up to build munitions for WWII. Jobs were plentiful, wages were rising. White flight took hold and city neighborhoods were left to poorer and darker skinned citizens. Shopping malls drove another nail in the urban coffin. Stores followed wealthier customers into the countryside, building vast parking lots for four-wheeled shoppers.

That picture is changing fast. Downtown living became cool again. The glamour of sitting stationary in a flashy ride in rush hour traffic wore thin. Empty warehouses and office spaces were repurposed as high-end condominiums. Inner cities came alive. Anyone who�s lived in Asheville since the 1970s has witnessed a mind-blowing transformation. 

Then came higher gas prices. The cost of commuting began to offset lower property taxes in the sticks, making more people reconsider suburban life. In pre-Great Recession America there was still enough wealth and enough allure to continue building 4,000 square foot dream homes in gated havens out yonder. That all came to a screeching halt when Wall Street�s robber barons crashed our economy. 

The upcoming Buncombe County revaluation is going to be a real eye-opener, because if home sales are any indication we�ll see a reduction in valuations in the County and significant increase in valuations downtown.

Moreover, this is only a shadow of what�s to come. The Millennial generation�the folks who came of age in this century � are different. In 1985, customers between the ages of 21 and 34 purchased 38 percent of new cars sold, in 2010 that was down to 27 percent.

The portion of teenagers with a driver�s license fell by 28 percent between 1998 and 2008. Surveys of Millennials show that smart phone ownership is considered more important than car or home ownership.

Many Millennials would rather use public transportation and live in apartments or shared dwellings, with car use available through ZipCar and other shared vehicle companies. (Note that ZipCar started in 2000, when gas was $1.50 a gallon. It has grown by leaps and bounds as gas prices jumped. Smart phones make car sharing and transit use more accessible.) Millennials want to live in walkable, human-scale cities with a diversity of urban amenities. Can you say �Asheville?�

All of which leads me to make a bold prediction based on additional counsel from one of the smartest financial wizards I know. The just-opened parking garage at 51 Biltmore is going to prove to be a terrible mistake. It was the wrong 21st century answer to a 20th century question.

The citizenry is changing, electronic commuting is a commonplace and on the rise, gas prices are going to hit $5 in the not distant future and our next generation is streamlining socialization via Twitter and the Web.

The successful shrinking city is going to need better transit, and Asheville won�t have the money to make it happen. 

For $15 million we should have built a trolley

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Cecil Bothwell, a member of Asheville�s City Council, has been a Buncombe County resident for more than 30 years.